Biashara United 1–1 KMC: Result & Stats

Biashara United

FT

1 – 1

KMC

11/3/2020

Ligi kuu Bara · Round 9Karume Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Biashara United50%

×Draw31%

KMC19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Biashara UnitedExpected goals in this matchKMC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.62

Biashara United

1.19

KMC

0.62

Biashara United creates 92% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 112 away

1.00

creates per match

0.59

0.65

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Biashara United

1.00

KMC

0.59

allows per match

Biashara United

0.65

KMC

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Biashara United+0.00on par

KMC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biashara United ↓

KMC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Biashara United or draw

81%

Biashara United or KMC

69%

Draw or KMC

50%

Winning margin

Biashara United wins by 2+

22%

KMC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Biashara United 1+ goals

70%

Biashara United 2+ goals

33%

Biashara United 3+ goals

12%

KMC 1+ goals

46%

KMC 2+ goals

13%

KMC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Biashara United (draw refunded)

72%

KMC (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biashara United at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.65 · 51 matches

KMC away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.37 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biashara United attack 1.00 + KMC defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

KMC attack 0.59 + Biashara United defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Biashara United scores more

50%

level

31%

KMC scores more

19%

Biashara United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Biashara United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff