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Kluczbork vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
1 – 0
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
3/23/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kluczbork53%
×Draw22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.94
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.25

Kluczbork creates 55% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.13

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
1.93

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
75%
Kluczbork or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
78%
Draw or Karkonosze Jelenia Góra
47%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
31%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
86%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
58%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
30%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals
71%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals
36%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
68%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.13 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kluczbork scores more
53%
level
22%
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more
25%

Kluczbork at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kluczbork vs Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

Kluczbork beat Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.