Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1–0 Kluczbork

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kluczbork

3/22/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra38%

×Draw25%

Kluczbork37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Karkonosze Jelenia GóraExpected goals in this matchKluczbork

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.46

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.48

Kluczbork

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

1.46

creates per match

1.57

1.34

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.46

Kluczbork

1.57

allows per match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra

1.34

Kluczbork

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra+0.00on par

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra ↓

Kluczbork →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or draw

63%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra or Kluczbork

75%

Draw or Kluczbork

62%

Winning margin

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra wins by 2+

18%

Kluczbork wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 1+ goals

77%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 2+ goals

43%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 3+ goals

19%

Kluczbork 1+ goals

77%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

43%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra (draw refunded)

51%

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.34 · 67 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra attack 1.46 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Karkonosze Jelenia Góra defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra scores more

38%

level

25%

Kluczbork scores more

37%

Karkonosze Jelenia Góra at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Karkonosze Jelenia Góra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff