Kluczbork 2–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój: Result & Stats

Kluczbork

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Goczałkowice Zdrój

5/25/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kluczbork46%

×Draw24%

Goczałkowice Zdrój30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KluczborkExpected goals in this matchGoczałkowice Zdrój

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.29

Kluczbork

1.66

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.29

Kluczbork creates 29% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

1.95

creates per match

1.22

1.36

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Kluczbork

1.95

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.22

allows per match

Kluczbork

1.36

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw

70%

Kluczbork or Goczałkowice Zdrój

76%

Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój

54%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+

24%

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals

81%

Kluczbork 2+ goals

49%

Kluczbork 3+ goals

23%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

72%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

37%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)

61%

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.66

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.22 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kluczbork scores more

46%

level

24%

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

30%

Kluczbork at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff