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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
10/24/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 14Panatoni Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój42%
×Draw25%
Kluczbork33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.54
Kluczbork
1.35

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 14% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Kluczbork
1.57

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Kluczbork
1.50

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
67%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Kluczbork
75%
Draw or Kluczbork
58%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
21%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
79%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
45%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
20%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
74%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
39%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
56%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
42%
level
25%
Kluczbork scores more
33%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–1 Kluczbork

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Kluczbork 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Panatoni Arena in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.