Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Klatovy vs Horní Bříza — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
11/5/20224. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 14Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Klatovy66%
×Draw19%
Horní Bříza15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
2.25
Horní Bříza
0.97

Klatovy creates 132% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 15 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
Horní Bříza
0.40

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
Horní Bříza
2.60

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

Horní Bříza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
85%
Klatovy or Horní Bříza
81%
Draw or Horní Bříza
34%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
43%
Horní Bříza wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
89%
Klatovy 2+ goals
65%
Klatovy 3+ goals
39%
Horní Bříza 1+ goals
62%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
25%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
81%
Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

Horní Bříza away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + Horní Bříza defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.25

Horní Bříza attack 0.40 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Klatovy scores more
66%
level
19%
Horní Bříza scores more
15%

Klatovy at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Klatovy vs Horní Bříza

Klatovy beat Horní Bříza 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji in Klatovy.