Horní Bříza 0–3 Klatovy: Result & Stats

Horní Bříza

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Klatovy

6/3/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 29Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza30%

×Draw22%

Klatovy48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horní BřízaExpected goals in this matchKlatovy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.98

Horní Bříza

1.55

Klatovy

1.98

Klatovy creates 28% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

0.87

creates per match

1.44

2.53

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Horní Bříza

0.87

Klatovy

1.44

allows per match

Horní Bříza

2.53

Klatovy

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par

Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Klatovy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw

52%

Horní Bříza or Klatovy

78%

Draw or Klatovy

70%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+

14%

Klatovy wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals

79%

Horní Bříza 2+ goals

46%

Horní Bříza 3+ goals

20%

Klatovy 1+ goals

86%

Klatovy 2+ goals

59%

Klatovy 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)

39%

Klatovy (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.55

Klatovy attack 1.44 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Horní Bříza scores more

30%

level

22%

Klatovy scores more

48%

Klatovy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Klatovy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff