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Klatovy vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Klatovy
Klatovy
FT
2 – 1
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
7/31/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 1Stadion Na Rozvoji

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Klatovy34%
×Draw22%
České Budějovice II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klatovy
1.60
České Budějovice II
1.86

České Budějovice II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 26 away

creates per match

Klatovy
1.89
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Klatovy
1.53
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Klatovy+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klatovy ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Klatovy or draw
56%
Klatovy or České Budějovice II
78%
Draw or České Budějovice II
66%

Winning margin

Klatovy wins by 2+
16%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Klatovy 1+ goals
80%
Klatovy 2+ goals
47%
Klatovy 3+ goals
22%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
84%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
55%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Klatovy (draw refunded)
43%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klatovy at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.53 · 57 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klatovy attack 1.89 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.60

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Klatovy defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Klatovy scores more
34%
level
22%
České Budějovice II scores more
44%

České Budějovice II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Klatovy 2 – 1 České Budějovice II

Klatovy beat České Budějovice II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on July 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Na Rozvoji in Klatovy.