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České Budějovice II vs Klatovy — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
Pens
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Klatovy
Klatovy
3/7/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 16SCM Slo?i?te

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

České Budějovice II71%
×Draw16%
Klatovy13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.76
Klatovy
1.11

České Budějovice II creates 149% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 52 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Klatovy
1.44

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Klatovy
2.23

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Klatovy+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Klatovy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
87%
České Budějovice II or Klatovy
84%
Draw or Klatovy
29%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
50%
Klatovy wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
94%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
76%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
51%
Klatovy 1+ goals
67%
Klatovy 2+ goals
30%
Klatovy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
85%
Klatovy (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Klatovy away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.23 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Klatovy defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.76

Klatovy attack 1.44 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
71%
level
16%
Klatovy scores more
13%

České Budějovice II at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: České Budějovice II vs Klatovy

České Budějovice II and Klatovy drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie A on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at SCM Slo?i?te.