Kjelsås 1–3 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Kjelsås

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Flekkerøy

S. Ottesen 82'

A. Kloster 90'

K. Eriksen 25'

F. Lien 23'

9/2/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kjelsås50%

×Draw24%

Flekkerøy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KjelsåsExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.16

Kjelsås

1.71

Flekkerøy

1.16

Kjelsås creates 47% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

1.20

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kjelsås

1.40

Flekkerøy

1.12

allows per match

Kjelsås

1.20

Flekkerøy

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw

74%

Kjelsås or Flekkerøy

76%

Draw or Flekkerøy

50%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+

27%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals

82%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

51%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

24%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

69%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

32%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

66%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.02 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 1.40 + Flekkerøy defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.71

Flekkerøy attack 1.12 + Kjelsås defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kjelsås scores more

50%

level

24%

Flekkerøy scores more

26%

Kjelsås at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

F. Lien

25'

K. Eriksen

29'

D. Dashaev

46'

S. Ottesen← M. Welinder

61'

S. Olafsen← P. Halvorsen

61'

P. Askengren← N. Knezevic

61'

J. Furaha← K. Eriksen

68'

M. Ottesen← L. Bech Hermansen

68'

A. Kloster← W. Johnsen

76'

E. Willumsen

79'

T. Kongerud

82'

S. Ottesen

86'

D. Ibishi← P. Dovland

90'

A. Kloster

Kjelsås

Flekkerøy

30

1

14

5

6

▼

4

22

8

3

⚽

Lien

9

⚽

▼

Eriksen

10

▼

Dovland

1

Rocha

22

Martinuss

15

▼

Welinder

29

▼

8

10

7

21

28

▼

Hermansen

9

Aslaksrud

20

▼

Knezevic

Manager: E. Kampen

46'▲S. Ottesen←▼M. Welinder

61'▲S. Olafsen←▼P. Halvorsen

61'▲P. Askengren←▼N. Knezevic

68'▲M. Ottesen←▼L. Bech Hermansen

Kjelsås substitutes

16Ottesen17Olafsen19Askengren11Ottesen6Boateng14Nouri24Osnes27Krokan30Kirsebom

Manager: M. Johansen

61'▲J. Furaha←▼K. Eriksen

68'▲A. Kloster←▼W. Johnsen

86'▲D. Ibishi←▼P. Dovland

Flekkerøy substitutes

11Furaha29Kloster17Ibishi13Kristiansen16Sigurdsen21Hilmarsson23Årikstad

2. Division - Group 1: Kjelsås 1–3 Flekkerøy

Flekkerøy beat Kjelsås 3-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on September 2, 2023.

Goals: F. Lien (23'), K. Eriksen (25'), S. Ottesen (82'), A. Kloster (90').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.

Kjelsås vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Kjelsås 1–3 Flekkerøy