Kjelsås 1–4 Flekkerøy: Result & Stats

Kjelsås

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Flekkerøy

F. Gripsgård 33'

O. Thorsen 90+2'

B. Hove 66'

E. Pedersen 52', 51'

11/14/2021

2. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kjelsås55%

×Draw22%

Flekkerøy23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KjelsåsExpected goals in this matchFlekkerøy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.21

Kjelsås

1.99

Flekkerøy

1.21

Kjelsås creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 21 away

2.27

creates per match

1.05

1.37

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kjelsås

2.27

Flekkerøy

1.05

allows per match

Kjelsås

1.37

Flekkerøy

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Flekkerøy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw

77%

Kjelsås or Flekkerøy

78%

Draw or Flekkerøy

45%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+

32%

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals

86%

Kjelsås 2+ goals

59%

Kjelsås 3+ goals

32%

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

70%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

34%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)

71%

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.37 · 70 matches

Flekkerøy away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.27 + Flekkerøy defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.99

Flekkerøy attack 1.05 + Kjelsås defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kjelsås scores more

55%

level

22%

Flekkerøy scores more

23%

Kjelsås at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

F. Gripsgård

51'

E. Pedersen

52'

E. Pedersen

57'

V. Halvorsen← J. Hanstad

63'

A. Abbas← F. Gripsgård

63'

S. Ottesen← R. Brenden

63'

S. Fredriksen← A. Hella

63'

M. Fredriksen← J. Eftevaag

66'

B. Hove

80'

M. Holt

82'

K. Lien← M. Grundetjern

90'

O. Bjornland

90+5'

K. Lien

90'

O. Thorsen← E. Pedersen

90+2'

O. Thorsen

Kjelsås

Flekkerøy

1

Knezovic

33

⚽

Hove

15

Holt

2

Kleppa

16

▼

Eftevaag

18

Hauge

6

▼

Hella

14

Ystanes

37

▼

Grundetje

11

Richstad

99

⚽2

▼

Pedersen

30

Fiskvik

5

▼

6

22

8

25

⚽

▼

26

24

28

20

14

▼

Hanstad

Manager: E. Kampen

57'▲V. Halvorsen←▼J. Hanstad

63'▲A. Abbas←▼F. Gripsgård

63'▲S. Ottesen←▼R. Brenden

Kjelsås substitutes

21Halvorsen19Abbas16Ottesen3Håberg17Løvseth18Emblem-Olsen23Rusten7Flaten12Sæther

Manager: V. Urdal

63'▲S. Fredriksen←▼A. Hella

63'▲M. Fredriksen←▼J. Eftevaag

82'▲K. Lien←▼M. Grundetjern

90'▲O. Thorsen←▼E. Pedersen

Flekkerøy substitutes

7Fredriksen27Fredriksen17Lien9Thorsen4Aas13Kristiansen21Aslaksen24Hilmarsson

Match Recap: Kjelsås vs Flekkerøy

Flekkerøy beat Kjelsås 4-1 in 2. Division - Group 2 on November 14, 2021.

Goals: F. Gripsgård (33'), E. Pedersen (51', 52'), B. Hove (66'), O. Thorsen (90+2').

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.

Kjelsås vs Flekkerøy — 2. Division - Group 2 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kjelsås vs Flekkerøy