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Kjelsås vs Arendal — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Kjelsås
Kjelsås
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Arendal
Arendal
8/18/20212. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Grefsen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Kjelsås50%
×Draw22%
Arendal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjelsås
1.89
Arendal
1.35

Kjelsås creates 40% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kjelsås
2.26
Arendal
1.35

allows per match

Kjelsås
1.35
Arendal
1.52

finishing

Kjelsås+0.00on par
Arendal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjelsås ↓

Arendal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kjelsås or draw
72%
Kjelsås or Arendal
78%
Draw or Arendal
50%

Winning margin

Kjelsås wins by 2+
28%
Arendal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kjelsås 1+ goals
85%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
56%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
29%
Arendal 1+ goals
74%
Arendal 2+ goals
39%
Arendal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kjelsås (draw refunded)
65%
Arendal (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjelsås at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 72 matches

Arendal away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjelsås attack 2.26 + Arendal defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.89

Arendal attack 1.35 + Kjelsås defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kjelsås scores more
50%
level
22%
Arendal scores more
28%

Kjelsås at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kjelsås will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Kjelsås 2–2 Arendal

Kjelsås and Arendal drew 2-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Grefsen Stadion in Oslo.