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Arendal vs Kjelsås — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Arendal
Arendal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kjelsås
Kjelsås
11/11/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Norac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Arendal55%
×Draw23%
Kjelsås22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arendal
1.79
Kjelsås
1.04

Arendal creates 72% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 19 away

creates per match

Arendal
2.27
Kjelsås
0.95

allows per match

Arendal
1.14
Kjelsås
1.32

finishing

Arendal+0.00on par
Kjelsås+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arendal ↓

Kjelsås →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arendal or draw
78%
Arendal or Kjelsås
77%
Draw or Kjelsås
45%

Winning margin

Arendal wins by 2+
31%
Kjelsås wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arendal 1+ goals
83%
Arendal 2+ goals
53%
Arendal 3+ goals
26%
Kjelsås 1+ goals
65%
Kjelsås 2+ goals
28%
Kjelsås 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arendal (draw refunded)
71%
Kjelsås (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arendal at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.14 · 71 matches

Kjelsås away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arendal attack 2.27 + Kjelsås defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kjelsås attack 0.95 + Arendal defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arendal scores more
55%
level
23%
Kjelsås scores more
22%

Arendal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Arendal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arendal vs Kjelsås

Arendal and Kjelsås drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Norac Stadion in Arendal.