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Kitchee vs Hang Yuen — AFC Cup 2018

Kitchee
Kitchee
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
5/1/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kitchee76%
×Draw14%
Hang Yuen11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitchee
3.17
Hang Yuen
1.17

Kitchee creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kitchee
2.00
Hang Yuen
1.00

allows per match

Kitchee
1.33
Hang Yuen
4.33

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par
Hang Yuen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

Hang Yuen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw
89%
Kitchee or Hang Yuen
86%
Draw or Hang Yuen
24%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+
56%
Hang Yuen wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals
96%
Kitchee 2+ goals
82%
Kitchee 3+ goals
60%
Hang Yuen 1+ goals
69%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
33%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)
87%
Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Hang Yuen away — creates 1.00, concedes 4.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 2.00 + Hang Yuen defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.17

Hang Yuen attack 1.00 + Kitchee defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Kitchee scores more
76%
level
14%
Hang Yuen scores more
11%

Kitchee at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Kitchee 3–0 Hang Yuen

Kitchee beat Hang Yuen 3-0 in AFC Cup on May 1, 2019.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong).