Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hang Yuen vs Kitchee — AFC Cup 2018

Hang Yuen
Hang Yuen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kitchee
Kitchee
5/15/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Taipei Municipal Stadium (Taipei)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hang Yuen23%
×Draw21%
Kitchee56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hang Yuen
1.33
Kitchee
2.17

Kitchee creates 63% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hang Yuen
0.67
Kitchee
1.67

allows per match

Hang Yuen
2.67
Kitchee
2.00

finishing

Hang Yuen+0.00on par
Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hang Yuen ↓

Kitchee →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hang Yuen or draw
44%
Hang Yuen or Kitchee
79%
Draw or Kitchee
77%

Winning margin

Hang Yuen wins by 2+
10%
Kitchee wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Hang Yuen 1+ goals
74%
Hang Yuen 2+ goals
38%
Hang Yuen 3+ goals
15%
Kitchee 1+ goals
89%
Kitchee 2+ goals
64%
Kitchee 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Hang Yuen (draw refunded)
29%
Kitchee (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hang Yuen at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

Kitchee away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hang Yuen attack 0.67 + Kitchee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kitchee attack 1.67 + Hang Yuen defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hang Yuen scores more
23%
level
21%
Kitchee scores more
56%

Kitchee at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Kitchee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Hang Yuen 1–2 Kitchee

Kitchee beat Hang Yuen 2-1 in AFC Cup on May 15, 2019.

The match was played at Taipei Municipal Stadium (Taipei).