Kitchee 1–0 April 25: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Kitchee

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

April 25

6/26/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Mong Kok Stadium (Hong Kong)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kitchee32%

×Draw23%

April 2545%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KitcheeExpected goals in this matchApril 25

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.81

Kitchee

1.50

April 25

1.81

April 25 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.30

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Kitchee

2.00

April 25

2.30

allows per match

Kitchee

1.33

April 25

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kitchee+0.00on par

April 25+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitchee ↓

April 25 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kitchee or draw

55%

Kitchee or April 25

77%

Draw or April 25

68%

Winning margin

Kitchee wins by 2+

15%

April 25 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Kitchee 1+ goals

78%

Kitchee 2+ goals

44%

Kitchee 3+ goals

19%

April 25 1+ goals

84%

April 25 2+ goals

54%

April 25 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Kitchee (draw refunded)

42%

April 25 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitchee at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

April 25 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitchee attack 2.00 + April 25 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

April 25 attack 2.30 + Kitchee defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kitchee scores more

32%

level

23%

April 25 scores more

45%

April 25 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff