April 25 2–0 Kitchee: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

April 25

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kitchee

4/17/2019

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Kim Il Sung Stadium (P'yŏngyang (Pyongyang))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

April 2572%

×Draw16%

Kitchee12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

April 25Expected goals in this matchKitchee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

1.06

April 25

2.73

Kitchee

1.06

April 25 creates 158% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

3.45

creates per match

1.67

0.45

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

April 25

3.45

Kitchee

1.67

allows per match

April 25

0.45

Kitchee

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

April 25+0.00on par

Kitchee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

April 25 ↓

Kitchee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

April 25 or draw

88%

April 25 or Kitchee

84%

Draw or Kitchee

28%

Winning margin

April 25 wins by 2+

51%

Kitchee wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

April 25 1+ goals

93%

April 25 2+ goals

75%

April 25 3+ goals

50%

Kitchee 1+ goals

65%

Kitchee 2+ goals

29%

Kitchee 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

April 25 (draw refunded)

85%

Kitchee (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

April 25 at home — creates 3.45, concedes 0.45 · 11 matches

Kitchee away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

April 25 attack 3.45 + Kitchee defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.73

Kitchee attack 1.67 + April 25 defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

April 25 scores more

72%

level

16%

Kitchee scores more

12%

April 25 at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "April 25 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff