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Kitara vs Buhimba Saints — Premier League 2019

Kitara
Kitara
FT
4 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Buhimba Saints
Buhimba Saints
3/13/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kitara71%
×Draw18%
Buhimba Saints12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitara
2.32
Buhimba Saints
0.82

Kitara creates 183% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 14 away

creates per match

Kitara
1.78
Buhimba Saints
0.50

allows per match

Kitara
1.14
Buhimba Saints
2.86

finishing

Kitara+0.00on par
Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitara ↓

Buhimba Saints →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kitara or draw
88%
Kitara or Buhimba Saints
82%
Draw or Buhimba Saints
29%

Winning margin

Kitara wins by 2+
47%
Buhimba Saints wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Kitara 1+ goals
90%
Kitara 2+ goals
67%
Kitara 3+ goals
40%
Buhimba Saints 1+ goals
56%
Buhimba Saints 2+ goals
20%
Buhimba Saints 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kitara (draw refunded)
86%
Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitara at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

Buhimba Saints away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitara attack 1.78 + Buhimba Saints defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.32

Buhimba Saints attack 0.50 + Kitara defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Kitara scores more
71%
level
18%
Buhimba Saints scores more
12%

Kitara at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kitara vs Buhimba Saints

Kitara beat Buhimba Saints 4-0 in Premier League on March 13, 2026.

The match was played at The Royals Park.