Buhimba Saints 1–0 Kitara: Result & Stats

Buhimba Saints

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kitara

10/16/2025

Premier League · Round 3The Royals Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Buhimba Saints28%

×Draw28%

Kitara44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buhimba SaintsExpected goals in this matchKitara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

1.32

Buhimba Saints

1.00

Kitara

1.32

Kitara creates 32% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 57 away

0.60

creates per match

1.11

1.53

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Buhimba Saints

0.60

Kitara

1.11

allows per match

Buhimba Saints

1.53

Kitara

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buhimba Saints+0.00on par

Kitara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buhimba Saints ↓

Kitara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Buhimba Saints or draw

56%

Buhimba Saints or Kitara

72%

Draw or Kitara

72%

Winning margin

Buhimba Saints wins by 2+

10%

Kitara wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Buhimba Saints 1+ goals

63%

Buhimba Saints 2+ goals

26%

Buhimba Saints 3+ goals

8%

Kitara 1+ goals

73%

Kitara 2+ goals

38%

Kitara 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Buhimba Saints (draw refunded)

39%

Kitara (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buhimba Saints at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

Kitara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buhimba Saints attack 0.60 + Kitara defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kitara attack 1.11 + Buhimba Saints defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Buhimba Saints scores more

28%

level

28%

Kitara scores more

44%

Kitara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kitara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff