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Kitakyushu vs Avispa Fukuoka — J2 League 2018

Kitakyushu
Kitakyushu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
2/23/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 1Mikuni World Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kitakyushu33%
×Draw28%
Avispa Fukuoka39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kitakyushu
1.11
Avispa Fukuoka
1.22

Avispa Fukuoka creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kitakyushu
1.09
Avispa Fukuoka
1.18

allows per match

Kitakyushu
1.26
Avispa Fukuoka
1.14

finishing

Kitakyushu+0.00on par
Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kitakyushu ↓

Avispa Fukuoka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kitakyushu or draw
61%
Kitakyushu or Avispa Fukuoka
72%
Draw or Avispa Fukuoka
67%

Winning margin

Kitakyushu wins by 2+
13%
Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kitakyushu 1+ goals
67%
Kitakyushu 2+ goals
30%
Kitakyushu 3+ goals
10%
Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
70%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
34%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kitakyushu (draw refunded)
46%
Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kitakyushu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Avispa Fukuoka away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kitakyushu attack 1.09 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.11

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.18 + Kitakyushu defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kitakyushu scores more
33%
level
28%
Avispa Fukuoka scores more
39%

Avispa Fukuoka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kitakyushu 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka

Avispa Fukuoka beat Kitakyushu 1-0 in J2 League on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Mikuni World Stadium in Kitakyushu.