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Avispa Fukuoka vs Kitakyushu — J2 League 2018

Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kitakyushu
Kitakyushu
10/4/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 24Level-5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Avispa Fukuoka46%
×Draw27%
Kitakyushu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avispa Fukuoka
1.40
Kitakyushu
0.99

Avispa Fukuoka creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 47 away

creates per match

Avispa Fukuoka
1.22
Kitakyushu
1.02

allows per match

Avispa Fukuoka
0.97
Kitakyushu
1.57

finishing

Avispa Fukuoka+0.00on par
Kitakyushu+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avispa Fukuoka ↓

Kitakyushu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Avispa Fukuoka or draw
73%
Avispa Fukuoka or Kitakyushu
73%
Draw or Kitakyushu
54%

Winning margin

Avispa Fukuoka wins by 2+
22%
Kitakyushu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Avispa Fukuoka 1+ goals
75%
Avispa Fukuoka 2+ goals
41%
Avispa Fukuoka 3+ goals
17%
Kitakyushu 1+ goals
63%
Kitakyushu 2+ goals
26%
Kitakyushu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Avispa Fukuoka (draw refunded)
64%
Kitakyushu (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avispa Fukuoka at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.97 · 64 matches

Kitakyushu away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avispa Fukuoka attack 1.22 + Kitakyushu defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kitakyushu attack 1.02 + Avispa Fukuoka defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avispa Fukuoka scores more
46%
level
27%
Kitakyushu scores more
27%

Avispa Fukuoka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avispa Fukuoka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Avispa Fukuoka 2–0 Kitakyushu

Avispa Fukuoka beat Kitakyushu 2-0 in J2 League on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Level-5 Stadium in Fukuoka.