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Kisvárda II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
A. Esik 84'
K. Nagy 47', 9'
G. Lenart 30'
D. Drobina 21'
5/21/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 38Várkerti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Kisvárda II46%
×Draw24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisvárda II
1.66
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.29

Kisvárda II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kisvárda II
1.79
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

allows per match

Kisvárda II
1.05
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.53

finishing

Kisvárda II+0.00on par
Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvárda II ↓

Hajdúszoboszlói SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kisvárda II or draw
70%
Kisvárda II or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
76%
Draw or Hajdúszoboszlói SE
54%

Winning margin

Kisvárda II wins by 2+
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kisvárda II 1+ goals
81%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
49%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
23%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
72%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
37%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
61%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvárda II at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.53 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvárda II attack 1.79 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.53 + Kisvárda II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kisvárda II scores more
46%
level
24%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
30%

Kisvárda II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kisvárda II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
K. Nagy
21'
D. Drobina
30'
G. Lenart
47'
K. Nagy
84'
A. Esik

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kisvárda II vs Hajdúszoboszlói SE

Kisvárda II beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on May 21, 2023.

Goals: K. Nagy (9', 47'), D. Drobina (21'), G. Lenart (30'), A. Esik (84').

The match was played at Várkerti Stadion in Kisvárda.