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Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Kisvárda II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
Hajdúszoboszlói SE
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kisvárda II
Kisvárda II
B. Karika 17'
N. Honchar 45'
E. Czerna 38'
11/27/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 19Bocskai Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hajdúszoboszlói SE43%
×Draw27%
Kisvárda II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.39
Kisvárda II
1.13

Hajdúszoboszlói SE creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 102 away

creates per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
1.61
Kisvárda II
1.44

allows per match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE
0.82
Kisvárda II
1.17

finishing

Hajdúszoboszlói SE+0.00on par
Kisvárda II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hajdúszoboszlói SE ↓

Kisvárda II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hajdúszoboszlói SE or draw
69%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE or Kisvárda II
73%
Draw or Kisvárda II
57%

Winning margin

Hajdúszoboszlói SE wins by 2+
20%
Kisvárda II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hajdúszoboszlói SE 1+ goals
75%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2+ goals
40%
Hajdúszoboszlói SE 3+ goals
16%
Kisvárda II 1+ goals
68%
Kisvárda II 2+ goals
31%
Kisvárda II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hajdúszoboszlói SE (draw refunded)
58%
Kisvárda II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.82 · 38 matches

Kisvárda II away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.17 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hajdúszoboszlói SE attack 1.61 + Kisvárda II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Kisvárda II attack 1.44 + Hajdúszoboszlói SE defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hajdúszoboszlói SE scores more
43%
level
27%
Kisvárda II scores more
31%

Hajdúszoboszlói SE at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hajdúszoboszlói SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'
B. Karika
38'
E. Czerna
45'
N. Honchar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hajdúszoboszlói SE vs Kisvárda II

Kisvárda II beat Hajdúszoboszlói SE 2-1 in NB III - Northeast on November 27, 2022.

Goals: B. Karika (17'), E. Czerna (38'), N. Honchar (45').

The match was played at Bocskai Stadion in Hajdúszoboszló.