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Kisvarda FC vs Gyirmot SE — League #272 2026

Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC
FT
6 – 4
HT: 5 – 1
Gyirmot SE
Gyirmot SE
10/20/2024League #272League #272 · Round 10Várkerti Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kisvarda FC54%
×Draw23%
Gyirmot SE24%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisvarda FC
1.85
Gyirmot SE
1.15

Kisvarda FC creates 61% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kisvarda FC
1.83
Gyirmot SE
1.13

allows per match

Kisvarda FC
1.17
Gyirmot SE
1.88

finishing

Kisvarda FC+0.00on par
Gyirmot SE+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisvarda FC ↓

Gyirmot SE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Kisvarda FC or draw
76%
Kisvarda FC or Gyirmot SE
77%
Draw or Gyirmot SE
46%

Winning margin

Kisvarda FC wins by 2+
30%
Gyirmot SE wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kisvarda FC 1+ goals
84%
Kisvarda FC 2+ goals
55%
Kisvarda FC 3+ goals
28%
Gyirmot SE 1+ goals
68%
Gyirmot SE 2+ goals
32%
Gyirmot SE 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)
69%
Gyirmot SE (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisvarda FC at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Gyirmot SE away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisvarda FC attack 1.83 + Gyirmot SE defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Gyirmot SE attack 1.13 + Kisvarda FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kisvarda FC scores more
54%
level
23%
Gyirmot SE scores more
24%

Kisvarda FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kisvarda FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #272: Kisvarda FC 6–4 Gyirmot SE

Kisvarda FC beat Gyirmot SE 6-4 in League #272 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Várkerti Stadion in Kisvárda.