Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gyirmot SE vs Kisvarda FC — League #272 2026

Gyirmot SE
Gyirmot SE
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kisvarda FC
Kisvarda FC
4/20/2025League #272League #272 · Round 25Alcufer Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Gyirmot SE56%
×Draw29%
Kisvarda FC16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyirmot SE
1.33
Kisvarda FC
0.56

Gyirmot SE creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

Gyirmot SE
1.47
Kisvarda FC
0.40

allows per match

Gyirmot SE
0.73
Kisvarda FC
1.20

finishing

Gyirmot SE+0.00on par
Kisvarda FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyirmot SE ↓

Kisvarda FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gyirmot SE or draw
84%
Gyirmot SE or Kisvarda FC
71%
Draw or Kisvarda FC
44%

Winning margin

Gyirmot SE wins by 2+
27%
Kisvarda FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Gyirmot SE 1+ goals
74%
Gyirmot SE 2+ goals
38%
Gyirmot SE 3+ goals
15%
Kisvarda FC 1+ goals
43%
Kisvarda FC 2+ goals
11%
Kisvarda FC 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Gyirmot SE (draw refunded)
78%
Kisvarda FC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyirmot SE at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Kisvarda FC away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyirmot SE attack 1.47 + Kisvarda FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.33

Kisvarda FC attack 0.40 + Gyirmot SE defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Gyirmot SE scores more
56%
level
29%
Kisvarda FC scores more
16%

Gyirmot SE at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Gyirmot SE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #272: Gyirmot SE 1–1 Kisvarda FC

Gyirmot SE and Kisvarda FC drew 1-1 in League #272 on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Alcufer Stadion in Győr.