Kisumu All Stars 1–0 Kenya Police: Result & Stats

Kisumu All Stars

FT

1 – 0

Kenya Police

5/1/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kisumu All Stars44%

×Draw29%

Kenya Police26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kisumu All StarsExpected goals in this matchKenya Police

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.88

Kisumu All Stars

1.23

Kenya Police

0.88

Kisumu All Stars creates 40% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 18 away

1.39

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars

1.39

Kenya Police

0.94

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars

0.82

Kenya Police

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Kenya Police →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw

74%

Kisumu All Stars or Kenya Police

71%

Draw or Kenya Police

56%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+

20%

Kenya Police wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals

71%

Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals

35%

Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals

13%

Kenya Police 1+ goals

59%

Kenya Police 2+ goals

22%

Kenya Police 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)

63%

Kenya Police (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Kenya Police defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kenya Police attack 0.94 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more

44%

level

29%

Kenya Police scores more

26%

Kisumu All Stars at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff