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Kenya Police vs Kisumu All Stars — Super League 2018

Kenya Police
Kenya Police
FT
4 – 2
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
9/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kenya Police50%
×Draw27%
Kisumu All Stars24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kenya Police
1.46
Kisumu All Stars
0.92

Kenya Police creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 107 away

creates per match

Kenya Police
1.41
Kisumu All Stars
0.90

allows per match

Kenya Police
0.94
Kisumu All Stars
1.51

finishing

Kenya Police+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kenya Police ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kenya Police or draw
76%
Kenya Police or Kisumu All Stars
73%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
50%

Winning margin

Kenya Police wins by 2+
25%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kenya Police 1+ goals
77%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
43%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
18%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
60%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
23%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kenya Police (draw refunded)
68%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kenya Police at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kenya Police attack 1.41 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Kenya Police defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kenya Police scores more
50%
level
27%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
24%

Kenya Police at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kenya Police vs Kisumu All Stars

Kenya Police beat Kisumu All Stars 4-2 in Super League on September 22, 2018.