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Kisumu All Stars vs Chemelil Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
CANC
00:00
Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
4/4/2020FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 27Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kisumu All Stars32%
×Draw29%
Chemelil Sugar38%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.03
Chemelil Sugar
1.15

Chemelil Sugar creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 55 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.64
Chemelil Sugar
0.56

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.73
Chemelil Sugar
1.42

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Chemelil Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
62%
Kisumu All Stars or Chemelil Sugar
71%
Draw or Chemelil Sugar
68%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
12%
Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
64%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
28%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
9%
Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
68%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
32%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
46%
Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Chemelil Sugar away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.64 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.03

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.56 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
32%
level
29%
Chemelil Sugar scores more
38%

Chemelil Sugar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kisumu All Stars face Chemelil Sugar (FKF Premier League)

FKF Premier League returns with Kisumu All Stars hosting Chemelil Sugar. Match starts April 4, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kisumu All Stars host Chemelil Sugar at Moi Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.