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Chemelil Sugar vs Kisumu All Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Chemelil Sugar
Chemelil Sugar
FT
1 – 1
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
Unknown 45'
Unknown 57'
11/2/2019FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 8Chemelil Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Chemelil Sugar61%
×Draw22%
Kisumu All Stars17%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemelil Sugar
1.83
Kisumu All Stars
0.83

Chemelil Sugar creates 120% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 11 away

creates per match

Chemelil Sugar
0.84
Kisumu All Stars
0.55

allows per match

Chemelil Sugar
1.11
Kisumu All Stars
2.82

finishing

Chemelil Sugar+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemelil Sugar ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Chemelil Sugar or draw
83%
Chemelil Sugar or Kisumu All Stars
78%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
39%

Winning margin

Chemelil Sugar wins by 2+
36%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Chemelil Sugar 1+ goals
84%
Chemelil Sugar 2+ goals
54%
Chemelil Sugar 3+ goals
28%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
56%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
20%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Chemelil Sugar (draw refunded)
79%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemelil Sugar at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.11 · 57 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.55, concedes 2.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemelil Sugar attack 0.84 + Kisumu All Stars defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.83

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.55 + Chemelil Sugar defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Chemelil Sugar scores more
61%
level
22%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
17%

Chemelil Sugar at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Chemelil Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
57'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Chemelil Sugar 1–1 Kisumu All Stars

Chemelil Sugar and Kisumu All Stars drew 1-1 in FKF Premier League on November 2, 2019.

Goals: ? (45', 57').

The match was played at Chemelil Sports Complex in Chemelil.