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Kisumu All Stars vs Assad — Super League 2018

Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
FT
2 – 0
Assad
Assad
5/8/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 29Moi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Kisumu All Stars62%
×Draw22%
Assad15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kisumu All Stars
1.84
Assad
0.78

Kisumu All Stars creates 136% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

creates per match

Kisumu All Stars
1.39
Assad
0.74

allows per match

Kisumu All Stars
0.82
Assad
2.29

finishing

Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par
Assad+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kisumu All Stars ↓

Assad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kisumu All Stars or draw
85%
Kisumu All Stars or Assad
78%
Draw or Assad
38%

Winning margin

Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
37%
Assad wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
84%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
55%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
28%
Assad 1+ goals
54%
Assad 2+ goals
18%
Assad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
80%
Assad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kisumu All Stars at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.82 · 108 matches

Assad away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.29 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kisumu All Stars attack 1.39 + Assad defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.84

Assad attack 0.74 + Kisumu All Stars defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kisumu All Stars scores more
62%
level
22%
Assad scores more
15%

Kisumu All Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kisumu All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kisumu All Stars 2–0 Assad

Kisumu All Stars beat Assad 2-0 in Super League on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Moi Stadium in Kisumu.