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Assad vs Kisumu All Stars — Super League 2018

Assad
Assad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kisumu All Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1/14/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Ukunda Showground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Assad49%
×Draw26%
Kisumu All Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Assad
1.50
Kisumu All Stars
1.01

Assad creates 49% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 107 away

creates per match

Assad
1.50
Kisumu All Stars
0.90

allows per match

Assad
1.11
Kisumu All Stars
1.51

finishing

Assad+0.00on par
Kisumu All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Assad ↓

Kisumu All Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Assad or draw
75%
Assad or Kisumu All Stars
74%
Draw or Kisumu All Stars
51%

Winning margin

Assad wins by 2+
24%
Kisumu All Stars wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Assad 1+ goals
78%
Assad 2+ goals
44%
Assad 3+ goals
19%
Kisumu All Stars 1+ goals
64%
Kisumu All Stars 2+ goals
27%
Kisumu All Stars 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Assad (draw refunded)
66%
Kisumu All Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Assad at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.11 · 72 matches

Kisumu All Stars away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.51 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Assad attack 1.50 + Kisumu All Stars defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Kisumu All Stars attack 0.90 + Assad defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Assad scores more
49%
level
26%
Kisumu All Stars scores more
25%

Assad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Assad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Assad vs Kisumu All Stars

Assad beat Kisumu All Stars 2-0 in Super League on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Ukunda Showground in Ukunda.