Kirchanschöring 2–1 Gundelfingen: Result & Stats

Kirchanschöring

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gundelfingen

3/23/2024

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 26Stadion Alte Mühle

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Kirchanschöring48%

×Draw25%

Gundelfingen27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KirchanschöringExpected goals in this matchGundelfingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.12

Kirchanschöring

1.60

Gundelfingen

1.12

Kirchanschöring creates 43% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 50 away

1.67

creates per match

1.12

1.11

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Kirchanschöring

1.67

Gundelfingen

1.12

allows per match

Kirchanschöring

1.11

Gundelfingen

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Gundelfingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kirchanschöring ↓

Gundelfingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kirchanschöring or draw

73%

Kirchanschöring or Gundelfingen

75%

Draw or Gundelfingen

52%

Winning margin

Kirchanschöring wins by 2+

25%

Gundelfingen wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kirchanschöring 1+ goals

80%

Kirchanschöring 2+ goals

47%

Kirchanschöring 3+ goals

22%

Gundelfingen 1+ goals

67%

Gundelfingen 2+ goals

31%

Gundelfingen 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)

64%

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kirchanschöring at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Gundelfingen away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.54 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kirchanschöring attack 1.67 + Gundelfingen defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gundelfingen attack 1.12 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kirchanschöring scores more

48%

level

25%

Gundelfingen scores more

27%

Kirchanschöring at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kirchanschöring will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kirchanschöring vs Gundelfingen

Kirchanschöring beat Gundelfingen 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Alte Mühle in Kirchanschöring.

Kirchanschöring vs Gundelfingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kirchanschöring vs Gundelfingen