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Gundelfingen vs Kirchanschöring — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Gundelfingen
Gundelfingen
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kirchanschöring
Kirchanschöring
4/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 16Schwabenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gundelfingen42%
×Draw24%
Kirchanschöring34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gundelfingen
1.61
Kirchanschöring
1.43

Gundelfingen creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gundelfingen
1.67
Kirchanschöring
1.64

allows per match

Gundelfingen
1.22
Kirchanschöring
1.55

finishing

Gundelfingen+0.00on par
Kirchanschöring+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gundelfingen ↓

Kirchanschöring →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Gundelfingen or draw
66%
Gundelfingen or Kirchanschöring
76%
Draw or Kirchanschöring
58%

Winning margin

Gundelfingen wins by 2+
21%
Kirchanschöring wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Gundelfingen 1+ goals
80%
Gundelfingen 2+ goals
48%
Gundelfingen 3+ goals
22%
Kirchanschöring 1+ goals
76%
Kirchanschöring 2+ goals
42%
Kirchanschöring 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Gundelfingen (draw refunded)
55%
Kirchanschöring (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gundelfingen at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

Kirchanschöring away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.55 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gundelfingen attack 1.67 + Kirchanschöring defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kirchanschöring attack 1.64 + Gundelfingen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gundelfingen scores more
42%
level
24%
Kirchanschöring scores more
34%

Gundelfingen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gundelfingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gundelfingen vs Kirchanschöring

Gundelfingen beat Kirchanschöring 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 21, 2026.

The match was played at Schwabenstadion in Gundelfingen.