Kingsley Westside 0–0 Kalamunda City

Kingsley Westside

FT

0 – 0

Kalamunda City

3/29/2025

Western Australia State League 1 · Round 2Chichester Park A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Kingsley Westside44%

×Draw26%

Kalamunda City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kingsley WestsideExpected goals in this matchKalamunda City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.18

Kingsley Westside

1.49

Kalamunda City

1.18

Kingsley Westside creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

0.82

1.53

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Kingsley Westside

1.80

Kalamunda City

0.82

allows per match

Kingsley Westside

1.53

Kalamunda City

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kingsley Westside+0.00on par

Kalamunda City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kingsley Westside ↓

Kalamunda City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Kingsley Westside or draw

70%

Kingsley Westside or Kalamunda City

74%

Draw or Kalamunda City

56%

Winning margin

Kingsley Westside wins by 2+

22%

Kalamunda City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kingsley Westside 1+ goals

77%

Kingsley Westside 2+ goals

44%

Kingsley Westside 3+ goals

19%

Kalamunda City 1+ goals

69%

Kalamunda City 2+ goals

33%

Kalamunda City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kingsley Westside (draw refunded)

60%

Kalamunda City (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kingsley Westside at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

Kalamunda City away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kingsley Westside attack 1.80 + Kalamunda City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.49

Kalamunda City attack 0.82 + Kingsley Westside defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kingsley Westside scores more

44%

level

26%

Kalamunda City scores more

30%

Kingsley Westside at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kingsley Westside will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff