Kings Hammer 4–0 Dayton Dutch Lions: Result & Stats

Kings Hammer

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Dayton Dutch Lions

7/6/2024

USL League Two · Central Conference - 15Northern Kentucky University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kings Hammer42%

×Draw24%

Dayton Dutch Lions34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kings HammerExpected goals in this matchDayton Dutch Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.49

Kings Hammer

1.67

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.49

Kings Hammer creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

1.25

creates per match

1.23

1.75

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Kings Hammer

1.25

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.23

allows per match

Kings Hammer

1.75

Dayton Dutch Lions

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kings Hammer ↓

Dayton Dutch Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kings Hammer or draw

66%

Kings Hammer or Dayton Dutch Lions

76%

Draw or Dayton Dutch Lions

58%

Winning margin

Kings Hammer wins by 2+

22%

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kings Hammer 1+ goals

81%

Kings Hammer 2+ goals

50%

Kings Hammer 3+ goals

23%

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals

77%

Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals

44%

Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)

55%

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kings Hammer at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Dayton Dutch Lions away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kings Hammer attack 1.25 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.67

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 1.23 + Kings Hammer defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kings Hammer scores more

42%

level

24%

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more

34%

Kings Hammer at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kings Hammer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff