Dayton Dutch Lions 0–0 Kings Hammer: Result & Stats

Dayton Dutch Lions

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kings Hammer

5/28/2025

USL League Two · Central Conference - 5Dayton Outpatient Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Dayton Dutch Lions44%

×Draw27%

Kings Hammer29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dayton Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchKings Hammer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.07

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.37

Kings Hammer

1.07

Dayton Dutch Lions creates 28% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 9 away

1.07

creates per match

0.78

1.36

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.07

Kings Hammer

0.78

allows per match

Dayton Dutch Lions

1.36

Kings Hammer

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dayton Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Kings Hammer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dayton Dutch Lions ↓

Kings Hammer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Dayton Dutch Lions or draw

71%

Dayton Dutch Lions or Kings Hammer

73%

Draw or Kings Hammer

56%

Winning margin

Dayton Dutch Lions wins by 2+

21%

Kings Hammer wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Dayton Dutch Lions 1+ goals

75%

Dayton Dutch Lions 2+ goals

40%

Dayton Dutch Lions 3+ goals

16%

Kings Hammer 1+ goals

66%

Kings Hammer 2+ goals

29%

Kings Hammer 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Dayton Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

60%

Kings Hammer (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dayton Dutch Lions at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Kings Hammer away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dayton Dutch Lions attack 1.07 + Kings Hammer defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.37

Kings Hammer attack 0.78 + Dayton Dutch Lions defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Dayton Dutch Lions scores more

44%

level

27%

Kings Hammer scores more

29%

Dayton Dutch Lions at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dayton Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff