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King Faisal vs Inter Allies — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
1 – 0
Inter Allies
Inter Allies
S. Kusi 86'
12/4/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

King Faisal49%
×Draw28%
Inter Allies22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.32
Inter Allies
0.79

King Faisal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 26 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.15
Inter Allies
0.65

allows per match

King Faisal
0.93
Inter Allies
1.50

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Inter Allies+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Inter Allies →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
78%
King Faisal or Inter Allies
72%
Draw or Inter Allies
51%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
23%
Inter Allies wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
73%
King Faisal 2+ goals
38%
King Faisal 3+ goals
15%
Inter Allies 1+ goals
55%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
19%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
69%
Inter Allies (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Inter Allies away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Inter Allies defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Inter Allies attack 0.65 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

King Faisal scores more
49%
level
28%
Inter Allies scores more
22%

King Faisal at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
K. Bwoakyi
31'
K. Braye
57'
P. Armah← P. Armah
60'
R. Toufiq
65'
P. Arkoh← P. Arkoh
70'
S. Kusi
71'
F. Abuska← F. Abuska
80'
P. Otubua← P. Otubua
86'
S. Kusi
88'
M. Kporvi← M. Kporvi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: King Faisal 1–0 Inter Allies

King Faisal beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on December 4, 2020.

Goals: S. Kusi (86').

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.