Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Inter Allies vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Inter Allies
Inter Allies
FT
0 – 1
King Faisal
King Faisal
Z. Ibrahim 15'
4/25/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 21Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Inter Allies53%
×Draw25%
King Faisal22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Inter Allies
1.57
King Faisal
0.92

Inter Allies creates 71% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 58 away

creates per match

Inter Allies
1.46
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Inter Allies
1.12
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Inter Allies+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter Allies ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Inter Allies or draw
78%
Inter Allies or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
47%

Winning margin

Inter Allies wins by 2+
27%
King Faisal wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Inter Allies 1+ goals
79%
Inter Allies 2+ goals
46%
Inter Allies 3+ goals
21%
King Faisal 1+ goals
60%
King Faisal 2+ goals
23%
King Faisal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Inter Allies (draw refunded)
70%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter Allies at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter Allies attack 1.46 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.57

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Inter Allies defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Inter Allies scores more
53%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
22%

Inter Allies at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Inter Allies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Z. Ibrahim
18'
24'
A. A. Amid
36'
P. B. Awuah← P. B. Awuah
46'
F. Osei← F. Osei
50'
A. Richard← A. Richard
51'
55'
57'
65'
M. Zakari← M. Zakari
68'
H. Musah
74'
K. Sunday← K. Sunday

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Inter Allies 0–1 King Faisal

King Faisal beat Inter Allies 1-0 in Premier League on April 25, 2021.

Goals: Z. Ibrahim (15').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.