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King Faisal vs Eleven Wonders — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
0 – 1
Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
5/30/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 27Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

King Faisal54%
×Draw26%
Eleven Wonders19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.48
Eleven Wonders
0.76

King Faisal creates 95% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.17
Eleven Wonders
0.60

allows per match

King Faisal
0.91
Eleven Wonders
1.79

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Eleven Wonders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
81%
King Faisal or Eleven Wonders
74%
Draw or Eleven Wonders
46%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
28%
Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
77%
King Faisal 2+ goals
43%
King Faisal 3+ goals
19%
Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
53%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
18%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
74%
Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 58 matches

Eleven Wonders away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.79 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.17 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Eleven Wonders attack 0.60 + King Faisal defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

King Faisal scores more
54%
level
26%
Eleven Wonders scores more
19%

King Faisal at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Eleven Wonders

Eleven Wonders beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on May 30, 2021.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.