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Eleven Wonders vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Eleven Wonders
Eleven Wonders
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
1/9/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders48%
×Draw28%
King Faisal24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wonders
1.37
King Faisal
0.88

Eleven Wonders creates 56% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 58 away

creates per match

Eleven Wonders
1.05
King Faisal
0.72

allows per match

Eleven Wonders
1.03
King Faisal
1.69

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw
76%
Eleven Wonders or King Faisal
72%
Draw or King Faisal
52%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+
23%
King Faisal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals
75%
Eleven Wonders 2+ goals
40%
Eleven Wonders 3+ goals
16%
King Faisal 1+ goals
59%
King Faisal 2+ goals
22%
King Faisal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)
67%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.69 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + King Faisal defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

King Faisal attack 0.72 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more
48%
level
28%
King Faisal scores more
24%

Eleven Wonders at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Eleven Wonders 2–0 King Faisal

Eleven Wonders beat King Faisal 2-0 in Premier League on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at Ohene Ameyaw Park in Techiman.