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King Faisal vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
11/9/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

King Faisal42%
×Draw30%
Ebusua Dwarfs28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.14
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

King Faisal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.40
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

King Faisal
0.87
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
72%
King Faisal or Ebusua Dwarfs
70%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
58%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
18%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
68%
King Faisal 2+ goals
32%
King Faisal 3+ goals
11%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
58%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
22%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
60%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.40 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + King Faisal defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

King Faisal scores more
42%
level
30%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
28%

King Faisal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: King Faisal 1–2 Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat King Faisal 2-1 in Division One League on November 9, 2025.