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Ebusua Dwarfs vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 0
King Faisal
King Faisal
M. Fuseini 66' (OG)
2/24/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs51%
×Draw26%
King Faisal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.50
King Faisal
0.91

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 65% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 59 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.31
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.10
King Faisal
1.68

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
77%
Ebusua Dwarfs or King Faisal
74%
Draw or King Faisal
49%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
26%
King Faisal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
78%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
44%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
19%
King Faisal 1+ goals
60%
King Faisal 2+ goals
23%
King Faisal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
69%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.31 + King Faisal defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
51%
level
26%
King Faisal scores more
23%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

47'
K. Frimpong
56'
Z. Ibrahim← Z. Ibrahim
66'
M. FuseiniOwn goal
75'
S. Kusi← S. Kusi
82'
K. Bwoakyi← K. Bwoakyi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ebusua Dwarfs 1–0 King Faisal

Ebusua Dwarfs beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on February 24, 2021.

Goals: M. Fuseini (66' o.g.).

The match was played at Cape Coast Sports Stadium in Cape Coast.