King Faisal 0–1 Berekum Chelsea: Result & Stats

King Faisal

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Berekum Chelsea

O. Osei 5'

4/7/2022

Premier League · Round 21Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

King Faisal50%

×Draw28%

Berekum Chelsea22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

King FaisalExpected goals in this matchBerekum Chelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.82

King Faisal

1.37

Berekum Chelsea

0.82

King Faisal creates 67% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 110 away

1.18

creates per match

0.72

0.92

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

King Faisal

1.18

Berekum Chelsea

0.72

allows per match

King Faisal

0.92

Berekum Chelsea

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Berekum Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw

78%

King Faisal or Berekum Chelsea

72%

Draw or Berekum Chelsea

50%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+

24%

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals

75%

King Faisal 2+ goals

40%

King Faisal 3+ goals

16%

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

56%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

20%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)

69%

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 60 matches

Berekum Chelsea away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.56 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.18 + Berekum Chelsea defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.37

Berekum Chelsea attack 0.72 + King Faisal defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

King Faisal scores more

50%

level

28%

Berekum Chelsea scores more

22%

King Faisal at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

O. Osei

11'

W. A. Lawoe← W. A. Lawoe

31'

I. Osman

51'

Y. Wadudu← Y. Wadudu

70'

S. Ortis← S. Ortis

70'

G. J. Amadu← G. J. Amadu

70'

84'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff