Berekum Chelsea 5–0 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Berekum Chelsea

FT

5 – 0

King Faisal

M. Abdul Basit 81', 29'

P. A. Agyei 64'

K. Owusu 42'

B. Amponsah 35'

6/6/2021

Premier League · Round 28Golden City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Berekum Chelsea57%

×Draw26%

King Faisal16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Berekum ChelseaExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.65

Berekum Chelsea

1.48

King Faisal

0.65

Berekum Chelsea creates 128% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 62 away

1.32

creates per match

0.71

0.59

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Berekum Chelsea

1.32

King Faisal

0.71

allows per match

Berekum Chelsea

0.59

King Faisal

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Berekum Chelsea+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Berekum Chelsea ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Berekum Chelsea or draw

84%

Berekum Chelsea or King Faisal

74%

Draw or King Faisal

43%

Winning margin

Berekum Chelsea wins by 2+

30%

King Faisal wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Berekum Chelsea 1+ goals

77%

Berekum Chelsea 2+ goals

43%

Berekum Chelsea 3+ goals

19%

King Faisal 1+ goals

48%

King Faisal 2+ goals

14%

King Faisal 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Berekum Chelsea (draw refunded)

78%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Berekum Chelsea at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.59 · 111 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Berekum Chelsea attack 1.32 + King Faisal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Berekum Chelsea defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Berekum Chelsea scores more

57%

level

26%

King Faisal scores more

16%

Berekum Chelsea at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Berekum Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

M. Abdul Basit

35'

B. Amponsah

42'

K. Owusu

64'

P. A. Agyei

81'

M. Abdul Basit

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff