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King Faisal vs Aduana Stars — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
B. Adjei 7'
3/6/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

King Faisal44%
×Draw30%
Aduana Stars26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.20
Aduana Stars
0.84

King Faisal creates 43% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 110 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.15
Aduana Stars
0.75

allows per match

King Faisal
0.93
Aduana Stars
1.25

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Aduana Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Aduana Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
74%
King Faisal or Aduana Stars
70%
Draw or Aduana Stars
56%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
19%
Aduana Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
70%
King Faisal 2+ goals
34%
King Faisal 3+ goals
12%
Aduana Stars 1+ goals
57%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
21%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
63%
Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Aduana Stars away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Aduana Stars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.20

Aduana Stars attack 0.75 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

King Faisal scores more
44%
level
30%
Aduana Stars scores more
26%

King Faisal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
B. Adjei
37'
46'
Z. Ibrahim← Z. Ibrahim
52'
A. Latif
54'
Y. Wadudu
63'
E. Sarfo← E. Sarfo
63'
G. Amadu← G. Amadu
84'
J. Gordon← J. Gordon

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: King Faisal 0–1 Aduana Stars

Aduana Stars beat King Faisal 1-0 in Premier League on March 6, 2022.

Goals: B. Adjei (7').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.