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Aduana Stars vs King Faisal — Premier League 2019

Aduana Stars
Aduana Stars
FT
1 – 3
King Faisal
King Faisal
K. A. Frimpong 15'
I. Osman 90+6', 9'
A. Latif 66'
11/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Agyeman Badu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Aduana Stars59%
×Draw25%
King Faisal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aduana Stars
1.55
King Faisal
0.65

Aduana Stars creates 138% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 62 away

creates per match

Aduana Stars
1.46
King Faisal
0.71

allows per match

Aduana Stars
0.59
King Faisal
1.65

finishing

Aduana Stars+0.00on par
King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aduana Stars ↓

King Faisal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Aduana Stars or draw
84%
Aduana Stars or King Faisal
75%
Draw or King Faisal
41%

Winning margin

Aduana Stars wins by 2+
32%
King Faisal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Aduana Stars 1+ goals
79%
Aduana Stars 2+ goals
46%
Aduana Stars 3+ goals
20%
King Faisal 1+ goals
48%
King Faisal 2+ goals
14%
King Faisal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aduana Stars (draw refunded)
79%
King Faisal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aduana Stars at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.59 · 110 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aduana Stars attack 1.46 + King Faisal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.55

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Aduana Stars defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Aduana Stars scores more
59%
level
25%
King Faisal scores more
16%

Aduana Stars at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Aduana Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
I. Osman
15'
K. A. Frimpong
22'
Y. Wadudu
45'
E. Gyamfi
57'
61'
F. Abdulrahman← F. Abdulrahman
64'
M. Wayo← M. Wayo
64'
B. Yahaya← B. Yahaya
66'
P. Acquah← P. Acquah
66'
S. Bioh← S. Bioh
66'
A. Latif
83'
O. Baffour← O. Baffour
84'
A. Kusi← A. Kusi
84'
D. Oppong← D. Oppong
90+6'
I. Osman

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Aduana Stars 1–3 King Faisal

King Faisal beat Aduana Stars 3-1 in Premier League on November 7, 2021.

Goals: I. Osman (9', 90+6'), K. A. Frimpong (15'), A. Latif (66').

The match was played at Agyeman Badu Stadium in Dormaa Ahenkro.