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King Faisal vs Accra Lions — Premier League 2019

King Faisal
King Faisal
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accra Lions
Accra Lions
A. Tetteh 48'
S. Antwi 38'
F. Asante 69'
11/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

King Faisal51%
×Draw28%
Accra Lions21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

King Faisal
1.36
Accra Lions
0.76

King Faisal creates 79% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 67 away

creates per match

King Faisal
1.15
Accra Lions
0.58

allows per match

King Faisal
0.93
Accra Lions
1.57

finishing

King Faisal+0.00on par
Accra Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

King Faisal ↓

Accra Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

King Faisal or draw
79%
King Faisal or Accra Lions
72%
Draw or Accra Lions
49%

Winning margin

King Faisal wins by 2+
25%
Accra Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

King Faisal 1+ goals
74%
King Faisal 2+ goals
39%
King Faisal 3+ goals
16%
Accra Lions 1+ goals
53%
Accra Lions 2+ goals
18%
Accra Lions 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

King Faisal (draw refunded)
71%
Accra Lions (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

King Faisal at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.93 · 59 matches

Accra Lions away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.57 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

King Faisal attack 1.15 + Accra Lions defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Accra Lions attack 0.58 + King Faisal defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

King Faisal scores more
51%
level
28%
Accra Lions scores more
21%

King Faisal at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "King Faisal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
S. Antwi
48'
A. Tetteh
53'
F. Asante← F. Asante
53'
E. Ampofo← E. Ampofo
53'
D. Oduro← D. Oduro
69'
F. Asante
76'
H. Mohammed← H. Mohammed
86'
A. Tetteh← J. K. Aggrey
88'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: King Faisal vs Accra Lions

King Faisal beat Accra Lions 2-1 in Premier League on November 20, 2022.

Goals: S. Antwi (38'), A. Tetteh (48'), F. Asante (69').

The match was played at Baba Yara Stadium in Kumasi.