Accra Lions 0–0 King Faisal: Result & Stats

Accra Lions

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

King Faisal

12/15/2021

Premier League · Round 8West Africa Football Academy Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Accra Lions54%

×Draw26%

King Faisal20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accra LionsExpected goals in this matchKing Faisal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.77

Accra Lions

1.48

King Faisal

0.77

Accra Lions creates 92% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 62 away

1.32

creates per match

0.71

0.84

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Accra Lions

1.32

King Faisal

0.71

allows per match

Accra Lions

0.84

King Faisal

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accra Lions+0.00on par

King Faisal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accra Lions ↓

King Faisal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Accra Lions or draw

80%

Accra Lions or King Faisal

74%

Draw or King Faisal

46%

Winning margin

Accra Lions wins by 2+

28%

King Faisal wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Accra Lions 1+ goals

77%

Accra Lions 2+ goals

43%

Accra Lions 3+ goals

19%

King Faisal 1+ goals

54%

King Faisal 2+ goals

18%

King Faisal 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Accra Lions (draw refunded)

73%

King Faisal (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accra Lions at home — creates 1.32, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

King Faisal away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.65 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accra Lions attack 1.32 + King Faisal defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.48

King Faisal attack 0.71 + Accra Lions defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Accra Lions scores more

54%

level

26%

King Faisal scores more

20%

Accra Lions at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Accra Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff