Kilmarnock 2–0 Hamilton Academical: Result & Stats

Kilmarnock

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hamilton Academical

1/9/2021

Premiership · 1st Phase - 23BBSP Stadium Rugby Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kilmarnock54%

×Draw24%

Hamilton Academical22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KilmarnockExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.02

Kilmarnock

1.73

Hamilton Academical

1.02

Kilmarnock creates 70% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 52 away

1.48

creates per match

0.83

1.22

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Kilmarnock

1.48

Hamilton Academical

0.83

allows per match

Kilmarnock

1.22

Hamilton Academical

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kilmarnock ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kilmarnock or draw

78%

Kilmarnock or Hamilton Academical

76%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

46%

Winning margin

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

30%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

82%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

52%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

25%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

64%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

27%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

71%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kilmarnock at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.22 · 117 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.98 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kilmarnock attack 1.48 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hamilton Academical attack 0.83 + Kilmarnock defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kilmarnock scores more

54%

level

24%

Hamilton Academical scores more

22%

Kilmarnock at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kilmarnock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff