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Hamilton Academical vs Kilmarnock — Premiership 2018

Hamilton Academical
Hamilton Academical
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
3/7/2020PremiershipPremiership · Round 30Fountain of Youth Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hamilton Academical37%
×Draw27%
Kilmarnock36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hamilton Academical
1.26
Kilmarnock
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hamilton Academical
0.91
Kilmarnock
0.83

allows per match

Hamilton Academical
1.65
Kilmarnock
1.61

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw
64%
Hamilton Academical or Kilmarnock
73%
Draw or Kilmarnock
63%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+
16%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals
72%
Hamilton Academical 2+ goals
36%
Hamilton Academical 3+ goals
13%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
71%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
35%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)
51%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.61 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 0.91 + Kilmarnock defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.26

Kilmarnock attack 0.83 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more
37%
level
27%
Kilmarnock scores more
36%

Hamilton Academical at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hamilton Academical will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Hamilton Academical 1–0 Kilmarnock

Hamilton Academical beat Kilmarnock 1-0 in Premiership on March 7, 2020.

The match was played at Fountain of Youth Stadium in Hamilton.